Does NEAR Intents volume predict NEAR network adoption?
Predictors: NEAR Intents volume (the candidate leading indicator) and NEAR token price (the competing indicator). Primary target: a Real Usage Index built from measures bots can't cheaply fake (fees burned in NEAR, plus returning signers once BigQuery covers the window). Secondary target: a broad Adoption Index of active accounts, transactions and contract usage. The page reports what the data says, including anything that cuts against the hypothesis.
The variables
Q1 and Q2: does this week's change predict real usage k weeks later?
Correlation between each predictor's weekly growth and Real Usage Index growth k weeks later. Filled markers mean p < 0.05. A leading indicator needs significant points at k ≥ 1.
Predictive tests (controls: 2 weeks of the target's own history, 2 weeks of BTC, a dummy for the April 2026 break)
"p" tests whether two weekly lags of the predictor add information. "Out-of-sample" is next-week forecast error with the predictor divided by error without it, using only earlier weeks. Below 1 means the predictor helps.
Robustness: the same tests on each component and on other Intents measures