Appendix: is NEAR undervalued or overvalued?
Three independent checks of NEAR's market cap against NEAR's own on-chain fundamentals: usage, DeFi and tokenomics. Appendix to the main thesis on NEAR Intents and network usage.
Market cap vs fair value
Fair value is what NEAR would be worth at its usual multiples on today's fundamentals. For each of revenue, DEX volume, TVL, stablecoins and returning accounts, today's figure is multiplied by NEAR's median multiple over the trailing 2 years. The fair value is the geometric mean of the five results. The band uses the 25th to 75th percentile multiples.
Valuation verdict over time
The verdict each day, from a majority vote of the three checks. It shows how often NEAR has looked rich or cheap against its own history.
Multiples vs NEAR's own history
Today's multiple, its 2-year median, and where today ranks in the last 2 years (0 = cheapest, 100 = richest). The "Fair value" column is the market cap that multiple implies at its median.
Confidence Premium
Valuation Index (market-cap percentile) minus Fundamentals Index (network, DeFi and tokenomics percentiles), both against NEAR's trailing 365 days. Above 0, investors are paying ahead of fundamentals.
Confidence Premium
Fundamentals vs Valuation
What drives the fundamentals
Network: active accounts, returning accounts, transactions, fees. DeFi: TVL, DEX volume, stablecoin supply. Tokenomics: staked share, net supply growth (lower scores higher), and the share of issuance offset by fee burn.
NEAR's raw metrics
Every input, as a 7-day average.
How reliable are these readings?
First, the Confidence Premium recomputed under 2,000 random weightings. Second, price change over the 90 days after each reading. The second is descriptive only: the windows overlap and cover a single two-year regime, so it isn't a trading signal.
Premium under random weights
90-day forward price change
Method and sources
Verdict. Majority of three checks. Fair value: market cap above the fair-value band counts as overvalued, below it as undervalued. Confidence Premium: +15 or more is overvalued, −15 or less is undervalued. Multiples vs history: a median percentile of 75 or more is overvalued, 25 or less is undervalued. If no two checks agree, the verdict is "Mixed".
No look-ahead. Every score, band and percentile uses only data up to that day. The fair value and multiple ranks use a trailing 2-year window (at least 1 year); the index scores use a trailing 365-day window.
Definitions. Revenue = fees burned: 70% of NEAR fees burn, and the other 30% goes to contract developers. Active accounts = daily distinct signers. Returning accounts = active minus new. Flows such as revenue and DEX volume are 30-day averages, annualised.
Sources (all public, no API keys). NEAR: NearBlocks and NEAR RPC for stake. DeFi data: DefiLlama.
Known limits. NEAR stake history isn't available without a key, so the pipeline saves one stake snapshot per run; the staking score joins the index after 180 snapshots. NEAR has no protocol buyback, so burn is the only supply sink measured.